Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 0.017462 0.019814 0.022373 0.025365 0.028770 0.032526 0.036987
2025-04-06 0.013439 0.016583 0.020305 0.025043 0.030923 0.037995 0.047164
2025-04-13 0.010927 0.014268 0.018456 0.024105 0.031543 0.041032 0.054102
2025-04-20 0.009816 0.013428 0.018176 0.024890 0.034177 0.046619 0.064641
2025-04-27 0.008915 0.012697 0.017872 0.025502 0.036514 0.051911 0.075216
2025-05-04 0.008239 0.012164 0.017734 0.026257 0.039037 0.057609 0.086857
2025-05-11 0.007412 0.011301 0.017008 0.026035 0.040050 0.061137 0.095569
2025-05-18 0.006777 0.010648 0.016502 0.026054 0.041372 0.065180 0.105383
2025-05-25 0.006140 0.009919 0.015797 0.025670 0.041982 0.068112 0.113647
2025-06-01 0.005752 0.009541 0.015594 0.026047 0.043818 0.073123 0.125752
2025-06-08 0.005298 0.009008 0.015086 0.025856 0.044667 0.076540 0.135430
2025-06-15 0.005077 0.008842 0.015163 0.026649 0.047245 0.083082 0.151161
2025-06-22 0.004586 0.008174 0.014343 0.025829 0.046955 0.084678 0.158299
2025-06-29 0.004222 0.007699 0.013816 0.025482 0.047483 0.087779 0.168544
2025-07-06 0.003808 0.007094 0.013003 0.024528 0.046783 0.088531 0.174343
2025-07-13 0.003681 0.007007 0.013123 0.025327 0.049466 0.095865 0.193715
2025-07-20 0.003540 0.006880 0.013153 0.025950 0.051853 0.102828 0.213027
2025-07-27 0.003426 0.006795 0.013255 0.026719 0.054590 0.110716 0.235025
2025-08-03 0.003206 0.006480 0.012881 0.026493 0.055273 0.114494 0.248688
2025-08-10 0.003032 0.006242 0.012639 0.026513 0.056464 0.119413 0.265292
2025-08-17 0.002829 0.005929 0.012219 0.026121 0.056735 0.122399 0.277887
2025-08-24 0.002718 0.005800 0.012165 0.026505 0.058721 0.129253 0.299937
2025-08-31 0.002562 0.005559 0.011859 0.026311 0.059402 0.133281 0.315817